Will the Osprey Return?

So it's April 9th.
Any day now, the osprey will return.
Or will they?
August 2015: three almost-fledgings were taken from the nest and killed by an eagle.
April 2016: An osprey arrived but we waited nine long days for its mate to arrive. 
July 2016: There were three babies, then one day there were only two. We never knew what happened to third.
April 2017: This is the worst shape I've ever seen the nest since they began building it in the summer of 2008. It's gone all to hell, as my husband would say, during this winter. Which is no surprise because we noticed last spring and summer how little work they were doing on the nest. None at all, really, so it wasn't built up against the winter winds.
I'm bracing myself -- and you -- for the possibility that the osprey may have abandoned this nest when they flew south last summer.
What happens next -- a new nesting pair takes over or a pair of eagles -- or it remains empty -- will be this summer's raptor drama.
I don't have to tell you how strange it would be to not have osprey living next door.